Optimising Landside Bus Fleet for ABM

The challenge

As Dublin Airport prepared for a significant, multi-year recovery in passenger traffic following the global pandemic, its service partner, ABM, faced a critical operational challenge: how to scale its landside busing operation to meet fluctuating demand efficiently and cost-effectively.

The operation involved multiple car park routes—each with unique demand profiles, service level requirements and passenger types. ABM needed a clear, evidence-based strategy to ensure it had the right number and type of buses available at all times. Simply adding more buses was not a viable option, as it could lead to excessive capital expenditure and high operational costs.

The key questions were:

• How could they accurately forecast bus requirements against a backdrop of uncertain passenger growth?
• What was the optimal mix of high-capacity articulated buses and smaller rigid buses to serve the network?
• How could they meet the airport’s strict service frequency agreements without maintaining a costly, underutilised fleet during off-peak periods?
• Could the fleet be managed more flexibly to improve efficiency and reduce operational overheads?

ABM needed a robust, data-driven plan to navigate this complex environment, balancing exceptional passenger service with smart, sustainable investment.

The solution

ABM partnered with AiQ Consulting to conduct a comprehensive Landside Bus Routing Analysis Study. Leveraging their expertise in airport analytics and simulation, AiQ developed a powerful demand model to provide a clear path forward.

The solution was built on a detailed, multi-layered analysis:

1. Building a Granular Demand Profile: AiQ moved beyond high-level estimates by creating a sophisticated model based on a wide range of inputs. This included official 2019 passenger statistics, validated post-pandemic recovery forecasts from Eurocontrol, and detailed hourly turn-up profiles for both passengers and staff. This ensured the analysis reflected real-world demand peaks and troughs throughout the day.
2. Route-Specific Scenario Modelling: The model simulated the performance of each individual car park route—Express Red, Express Green, Holiday Blue and Purple Staff—factoring in unique variables like route distance, number of stops, and passenger journey times. This allowed AiQ to compare the calculated passenger demand against the airport’s service level agreements for each route, identifying potential over-servicing or under-capacity issues.
3. Optimising the Fleet Mix: The analysis revealed that a “one-size-fits-all” approach was inefficient. AiQ’s key recommendation was to deploy a strategic mix of articulated and rigid buses. For instance, the analysis demonstrated that the busy Red Car Park could be effectively serviced by a combination of six articulated buses and one rigid bus. This approach would meet demand while only requiring surge capacity for a few “super-peak” hours on a handful of days per year, avoiding the need for an extra bus to be on standby all day.
4. Introducing Fleet Flexibility: AiQ identified a major opportunity for efficiency by treating the fleet as a shared resource. The analysis showed that the Express Green car park operated only during the summer. Its fleet of rigid buses could therefore be redeployed to support the Red and Blue routes during the winter months, improving year-round asset utilisation and potentially extending the operational life of the high-capacity articulated buses.

This detailed, data-backed approach provided ABM with a clear, actionable roadmap for managing its fleet through every stage of the airport’s recovery.

The benefits

The DUB Landside Bus Routing Analysis Study delivered significant value to ABM, transforming their operational planning from reactive to predictive and providing a foundation for sustained efficiency and service excellence.

• Data-Backed Investment Confidence: ABM gained a clear, phased multi-year plan for fleet procurement and deployment, perfectly aligned with forecasted passenger growth. This eliminated guesswork and enabled confident, capital-efficient decision-making.
• Enhanced Operational Efficiency: The optimised fleet mix ensures the right vehicle is used for the right task at the right time. This reduces fuel consumption, maintenance costs and overall operational expenditure (Opex) by avoiding the unnecessary use of larger buses during lower-demand periods.
• Guaranteed Service Quality: The proposed fleet plan was validated to ensure ABM could consistently meet and exceed the airport’s demanding service level agreements for bus frequency. This protects the passenger experience, even on the busiest days of the year, ensuring smooth and reliable journeys between car parks and terminals.
• Increased Fleet Resilience and Agility: By recommending strategies like cross-utilising buses from seasonal routes, AiQ provided ABM with a more flexible and resilient operation. This allows for dynamic allocation of resources to handle unexpected demand surges on any route, improving overall network performance.

Ultimately, AiQ’s analysis provided ABM with the strategic insight needed to build a smarter, leaner and more responsive ground transportation service, ready to support Dublin Airport’s growth for years to come.

AiQ’s award winning team

Our operational and analytical experts are dedicated to analysing, modelling and optimising every aspect of an airport. Specialising in airport capacity, we are trusted to realise capacity and solve complex operational challenges. For more information about how we can assist you with any of your challenges in 2025 and beyond, contact us today.